Climate Risk


The Climate Ledger

Cassie’s Climate Compass 🧭

The Climate Ledger

2026 Real-Time Regulatory Intelligence

For years, climate disclosure was a voluntary exercise. As of 2026, that era is officially over. This ledger tracks the global paradigm shift toward mandatory, asset-level physical modeling and statutory transition risks.

Compliance Pathway Advisor

Verify your reporting requirements under 2026 active guidelines

Step 1: Select your primary market or operations hub:

Decoding Physical Climate Risk

Physical climate risk represents the direct impact of planetary shifts on your balance sheet. To meet the rigor of international taxonomies (IFRS S2 / ESRS), we categorize risks by velocity and duration.

Acute Risks (The Shock)

Event-driven hazards that trigger immediate operational disruption and asset damage.

  • Temperature: Extreme heatwaves, flash freezes, severe frost events.
  • Wind: High-velocity tropical cyclones, severe convective storms, derechos.
  • Water: Pluvial/fluvial flash flooding, storm surges, glacial outburst floods.
  • Geologic: Fast-spreading wildland fires, landslides, mudflows, debris slides.

Regulatory Focus: Asset-level stress testing under localized, high-resolution return periods.

Chronic Risks (The Slow Burn)

Long-term shifts in climate patterns that erode asset viability and supply chain integrity.

  • Temperature: Baseline warming, cooling/heating degree day shifts, permafrost thaw.
  • Wind: Shifts in jet stream stability and prevailing monsoon trajectories.
  • Water: Relative sea-level rise, prolonged hydrological drought, ocean acidification.
  • Geologic: Coastal erosion, severe soil degradation, land subsidence.

Regulatory Focus: Decadal trajectory projections (2030/2050/2070) using IPCC SSP scenarios.

Active Mandates: 2026 Filings & Data Capture LIVE UPDATES

North America 🌎 Active Enforcement

California (SB 253):

Scope 1 & 2 greenhouse gas reporting for covered entities with >$1B annual revenue is due by August 10, 2026 under finalized CARB rules.

California (SB 261):

Biennial climate risk reporting (> $500M revenue). Pending legal stays, entities are actively preparing physical risk disclosures.

US Federal (SEC Rules):

Federal mandatory disclosures remain constrained by judicial stays, accelerating state-level (CA/NY) and international reliance.

Canada (OSFI Guideline B-15):

Mandatory physical hazard stress testing and climate risk governance active for all FRFIs.

EMEA 🌍 Phase Shifts

EU CSRD (ESRS Standards):

Wave 1 large public-interest companies filing under full ESRS double-materiality rules. Technical adjustments streamline Wave 2/3 timelines.

UK (SDR & TCFD Alignment):

FCA Sustainability Disclosure Requirements enforce strict anti-greenwashing rules and asset location validation.

UAE (CBUAE Mandate):

Mandatory physical risk stress testing for financial institutions operating under extreme heat and coastal flooding envelopes.

Asia Pacific 🌏 Live Frameworks

Australia (AASB S2):

Mandatory climate disclosures live for Group 1 entities. ASIC emphasizes strict enforcement against boilerplate disclaimers.

Singapore (ACRA / SGX):

Mandatory ISSB-aligned climate reporting for all listed issuers and large non-listed companies.

Japan (SSBJ Standards):

Finalized SSBJ standards require quantitative climate financial impacts and physical risk scoring for prime market entities.

Global / BR 🌐 Global Baselines

ISSB (IFRS S1 & S2):

Global baseline standard actively adopted across 25+ jurisdictions for unified physical and transition risk disclosures.

Brazil (CVM Resolution 193):

Transitioning from voluntary framework to mandatory IFRS S1/S2 reporting for publicly listed entities in 2026.

South Africa (Prudential Authority):

Commercial banks and insurers required to model physical hazard exposure across loan portfolios and infrastructure assets.

Coming into Focus: 2027-2028 Horizon

New York

Senate Bill S3697:

Scheduled physical exposure collection targeting large businesses operating within New York State.

Nigeria

SEC Regulatory Framework:

Phased reporting requiring agricultural and critical infrastructure resilience disclosures.

Kenya

CBK Climate Guidance:

Systemic risk guidance mandating commercial loan portfolio screening for climate vulnerability.

Ghana

Bank of Ghana Directives:

Banking directives enforcing physical asset modeling across key agricultural and extraction sectors.

Philippines

SEC Disclosure Mandates:

Expanded compliance standards evaluating physical typhoon and sea-level rise risks for public firms.

South Korea

KSSB Disclosure Standards:

Phased mandatory disclosures for large KOSPI-listed entities focusing on supply chain physical continuity.

The needle is moving, but we are the ones holding the map. 🗺️

Stay curious, stay calibrated, and let’s find true north together.

© 2026 Cassie Greer


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